I was going to write this one about what happens to Cardinals first round draft picks in general, but ended up looking at one particular case : Braden Looper.

Looper was the Cards 1996 first round pick and a third pick overall. Debuting as a starter in single A with a 3-6 record and a 4.48 ERA in 12 starts, he moved to double A Arkansas where he turned into a closer before the end of the year and making his Major League debut. In only his second year Looper became the closer in triple A Memphis before being traded to Florida.

Looper, Armando Almanza and Pablo Ozuna were traded for Edgar Renteria in December 1998. When we look at the value for money (VORP/million dollar) this seems like a very bad deal on the surface.

     |         Renteria          | Looper, Almanza, Ozuna  |
-----+-------+-------------------+------+------------------+
1999 |  33.6 |  2,000,000        | 21.2 |   401,000        |
2000 |  33.3 |  2,250,000        | 13.3 |   660,000        |
2001 |  15.4 |  4,500,000        | 20.3 |   480,000        |
2002 |  49.4 |  6,000,000        | 25.7 | 1,146,000        |
2003 |  75.3 |  6,500,000        |  6.4 | 1,425,000        |
2004 |  27.3 |  7,250,000        | 24.2 | 2,500,000        |
-----+-------+-------------------+------+------------------+
    | 234.3 | 28,500,000  8.221 |115.8 | 8,209,000 14.106 |

With Ozuna's limited exposure to the big leagues, we can leave him out of the equation. He's yet another one of those huge prospects (Minor League player of the year in 1998!) who never made it. Besides, he turned out 4 years older than was thought around the time he was with the Cards. Almanza did gain quite a bit of time in the big leagues, but considering the numbers that had more to do with the fact that he played in Florida than with his actual talent. Which more or less makes it a straight trade Looper for Renteria. Based on his numbers Looper would have been the Cards closer from about 2002, which is exactly when they got Izzy.

The other matter is who would have played shortstop over the 1999-2004 period if the Cards hadn't had Renteria. 1998 started with Royce Clayton as shortstop until he was traded to the Rangers. Once Clayton left, the Cards made do with Luis Ordaz. Ordaz never turned into an everyday player, so they were in need of a replacement. However, the shortstop free agent market was thin that year. Pat Meares was there, but he was only granted free agency on 21 December, a week after the Cardinals traded for Renteria. Besides, Renteria was the up and coming star for the future.

Over the period 1999-2004 Renteria's 28.5 million in salary was the fifth most amount paid for a shortstop. Only Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra and Barry Larkin earned more. Ex-Cardinal Royce Clayton earned a little over 20 million in those six years, so what if the Cards had held on to him?

     |         Clayton          |          Larkin           |
-----+------+-------------------+-------+-------------------+
1999 | 30.4 |  4,500,000        |  55.4 |  9,000,000        |
2000 |  6.4 |  4,500,000        |  42.4 |  9,000,000        |
2001 | 12.4 |  4,500,000        |   8.6 |  9,000,000        |
2002 |  5.2 |  4,500,000        |   8.7 |  5,300,000        |
2003 |  1.9 |  1,500,000        |  12.9 |  5,300,000        |
2004 | 17.3 |    650,000        |  26.5 |    700,000        |
-----+------+-------------------+-------+-------------------+
    | 73.6 | 20,150,000  3.653 | 154.5 | 38,300,000  4.034 |

OK, so we can conclude trading Clayton was a good move. From what I'm reading in Google Groups messages around that time, Barry Larkin was at one point also a target for the Cards, but thankfully they didn't pursue him. His name and reputation made him a hugely overpriced, over the hill shortstop for most years of the end of his career. With it being an even better thing that they didn't end up with Meares, who apparently managed to earn over 3 million per year for 4 years while not actually contributing, it would appear Renteria was about they best the Cards could have done. Now lets see what it could have been like without the trade and thus without having to get Isringhausen.

While Looper's VORP over the 2002-2004 period amounts to 61.6 for the 4.4 million he was paid, Izzy cost 17.75 million and delivered 49.9 worth of VORP. So for 2002-2004 that leaves 17.75-4.4+6+6.5+7.25 = 33.1 million to spend on a shortstop. That amounts to about 10 million a year, which was not enough for ARod or Jeter, leaving only the aforementioned Barry Larkin, Rey Ordonez and Nomar Garciaparra as more expensive options than Renteria. Garciaparra had a deal through 2004 in Boston (originally through 2002, but the Red Sox had picked up their options for 2003 and 2004 by the end of 2000). Ordonez was firmly rooted in the Mets organization, so there's no way the Cardinals would have been able to acquire a better shortstop than Renteria without giving up something.

They might have been better off trading away other players, but that's in hindsight. With about 1.5 million available in 1999-2000, 4 million in 2001 and 10 million in 2002-2004, a combination of well above average shortstops would have been a definite possibility. However, it's too vague to start talking about possible maybe deals that never were here.

Labels: Baseball, Cardinals