The big discussion in Cardinal land is how David Eckstein will fare with a different number two batter in the line-up. I've had a look at who drives in the lead off batter most by looking at all of 2004, courtesy of retrosheet.org play by play data.

Position  % of LO runs
1         14.2
2         22.7
3         33.8
4         20.6
5          7.4
6          1.2

Technically batters seven through nine can't score the lead off hitter due to the presence of only 3 bases and 2 out for any runner to be in before he has to either cross homeplate or get out.

Batter    % of RBI
2         29.8
3         32.6
4         19.1
5          7.6
6          1.4

So 22.7% of the time, the lead off scores with the number two at bat, whereas 29.8% of the runs scored with the number two at bat are the lead off hitter. The number two is more important in bringing the runner across the bases, while the number three is key in driving him in.

Additionally, here's from where the lead off usually scores. That's travelling to third over half the time on Major League average.

From   Total  Pct     By 2   By 3   By 4   By 5  By 6
1      438    15.7%  76.7%  18.9%   4.3%     -     -
2      957    34.2%  26.4%  46.7%  21.3%   5.5%    -
3      1403   50.1%  10.8%  40.9%  31.9%  13.5%  2.9%

Now lets apply this to Eckstein and the Cardinals.

Over 2005 Eckstein scored 90 runs. His hits were distributed 144 singles, 26 doubles, 7 triples, 8 homers and he got hit by a pitch 13 times and got walked 58 times. He had 11 steals. That's the part he did all by himself. For the rest he needed hitters to allow him to advance. With 8 times getting caught stealing, that leaves 240 times on base from
which he scored 82 times for a .342 rate.

His 2006 ZiPS projection says 85 runs, 135 singles, 25 doubles, 5 triples, 6 homers, 11 times hit by pitch, 54 walks, 11 steals, 7 times caught stealing. That's 223 times on base (excluding homers) for a .354 rate. So ZiPS actually excepts him to be helped along the basepaths some 3.5% better than last year, which is rather surprising.

Last season the Cards number two batter with over 100 at bats there (Taguchi, Edmonds, Walker, Nunez) drove in a combined 68 runs, including 17 homeruns. About 30% of 68, means that they roughly brough Eckstein over homeplate about 23 times.

Eckstein homered 8 times last year which is 8.9% of his runs being batted in by himself, which is below average. 23 from 90 is 25.6%, which is a bit higher than average, but overall Eckstein's roughly depending on himself and the number two 34.5%, while the (2004) average was 36.9%.

With most of Eckstein's production numbers expected to take a drop, he'll need more help behind him. With Pujols batting third, that part is covered. However, even Pujols can get hurt, so you can't only rely on him.

Looking at the current depth charts, I see two possible line-ups:

Eckstein        Eckstein
Spivey          Edmonds
Pujols          Pujols
Edmonds         Rolen
Rolen           Encarnacion
Encarnacion     Spivey
Bigbie          Bigbie
Molina          Molina

Edmonds is obviously the more beneficial option for Eckstein with his power, but is it the best for the team as well? Edmonds in second concentrates his power on Molina, the pitcher and Eckstein, while otherwise he influences Eckstein, Spivey and Pujols. Whether Edmonds bats second or fourth on average doesn't make any difference on the
number of runs Eckstein scores off him, looking at the table at the top. Overall I'd say it would be better to have Edmonds in the four spot, despite that Edmonds would probably reach more runs with two powerhitters behind him. Spivey in the two hole probably hurts Eckstein a bit, but will not waste precious power on the nine spot.

Labels: Baseball, Cardinals